特朗普主义 马斯克思想 万斯理论
PANews 11月12日消息，BitMEX聯合創始人Arthur Hayes發布題為《Black or White?》的最新文章，稱即將上任的特朗普政府可能會採用類似中國的經濟發展模式，他將其稱為“具有中國特色的美國資本主義」。Hayes預計新政府將透過大規模財政刺激和產業政策來推動製造業回流美國，政策將包括對關鍵產業提供稅收優惠和補貼，並透過銀行系統提供廉價融資，預計這將導致銀行信貸快速擴張，規模可能超過疫情期間的4兆美元刺激規模。在此背景下，Hayes認為比特幣將成為對抗法幣貶值的最佳選擇，預計將達到100萬美元。特朗普主义 马斯克思想 万斯理论When it comes to re-shoring American businesses, the costs of accomplishing this goal will also be in the trillions of dollars. America gave its manufacturing base to China voluntarily, starting in 2001 when it allowed China to enter the World Trade Organization. In under three decades, China has become the workshop of the world, producing the highest quality goods at the lowest prices. Even companies that want to diversify their supply chains outside of China to supposedly cheaper countries come to the realization that the integration of so many suppliers along the eastern coast is so deep and effective that even if the per-hour wage is much lower in Vietnam, for example, these companies still need to import intermediate parts from China to produce finished goods. All that is to say, it is going to be a gargantuan task to re-align supply chains to America, and if it must be done for political expediency, it will be fucking expensive. I’m talking about high single-digit to low double-digit trillions of dollars of cheap bank financing that must be provided to shift productive capacity from China to America.
当谈到美国企业回流时，实现这一目标的成本也将达到数万亿美元。从2001年允许中国加入世界贸易组织开始，美国自愿将其制造基地让给中国。在不到三十年的时间里，中国已成为世界工厂，以最低的价格生产最优质的商品。即使是那些希望将供应链多元化到中国以外的国家，转移到据称更便宜的国家的公司也开始意识到，东海岸如此多的供应商的整合是如此深入和有效，即使越南的每小时工资要低得多，例如，这些公司仍然需要从中国进口中间零件来生产成品。这就是说，重新调整与美国的供应链将是一项艰巨的任务，如果必须为了政治上的权宜之计而这样做，那将是非常昂贵的。我说的是必须提供高个位数到低两位数万亿美元的廉价银行融资，以将生产能力从中国转移到美国。
It took $4 trillion to decrease the debt-to-nominal GDP ratio from 132% to 115%. Let’s say the US reduces it further to 70%, which is where the ratio was in September 2008. Just using a linear extrapolation equates to $10.5 trillion of credit that must be created to accomplish this deleveraging. This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million, because prices are set on the margin. As the freely traded supply of Bitcoin dwindles, the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven from not just Americans but Chinese, Japanese, and Western Europeans. Get long, and stay long. If you doubt my analysis of the impact of QE for poor people, just read up on the Chinese economic history of the past thirty years, and you will understand why I call the new economic system of Pax Americana, “American Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics.”
花了 4 万亿美元才将债务与名义 GDP 的比率从 132% 降低到 115%。假设美国将其进一步降低至 70%，即 2008 年 9 月的比率。仅使用线性外推法就相当于必须创造 10.5 万亿美元的信贷才能完成去杠杆化。这就是比特币达到 100 万美元的过程，因为价格是根据保证金设定的。随着比特币自由交易供应量的减少，历史上最多的法定货币将不仅从美国人，而且从中国、日本和西欧人那里寻找避风港。走得长久，留得长久。如果你怀疑我对量化宽松对穷人影响的分析，只要读读中国近三十年的经济史，你就会明白为什么我把美国治下的和平新经济体系称为“中国特色的美国资本主义”。 ” {:22_2215:} 坏起来了 比特幣將成為對抗法幣貶值的最佳選擇，預計將達到100萬美元@文森 坏起来了 这人是吵比特币的吧，估计 比特币近期要跳水了 坏起来了
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